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Montecasillas vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Montecasillas
Montecasillas
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 2
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecasillas20%
×Draw21%
Lorca Deportiva59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecasillas
1.09
Lorca Deportiva
2.02

Lorca Deportiva creates 85% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 80 away

creates per match

Montecasillas
1.12
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Montecasillas
2.47
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Montecasillas+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecasillas ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Montecasillas or draw
41%
Montecasillas or Lorca Deportiva
79%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
80%

Winning margin

Montecasillas wins by 2+
7%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Montecasillas 1+ goals
66%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
30%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
10%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
87%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
60%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Montecasillas (draw refunded)
25%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecasillas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecasillas attack 1.12 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Montecasillas defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Montecasillas scores more
20%
level
21%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
59%

Lorca Deportiva at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montecasillas 1 – 7 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Montecasillas 7-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas in Murcia.