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Montecasillas vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Montecasillas
Montecasillas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Palmar
El Palmar
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecasillas30%
×Draw23%
El Palmar47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecasillas
1.35
El Palmar
1.75

El Palmar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Montecasillas
1.12
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Montecasillas
2.47
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Montecasillas+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecasillas ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Montecasillas or draw
53%
Montecasillas or El Palmar
77%
Draw or El Palmar
70%

Winning margin

Montecasillas wins by 2+
13%
El Palmar wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Montecasillas 1+ goals
74%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
39%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
15%
El Palmar 1+ goals
83%
El Palmar 2+ goals
52%
El Palmar 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Montecasillas (draw refunded)
39%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecasillas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecasillas attack 1.12 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Montecasillas defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montecasillas scores more
30%
level
23%
El Palmar scores more
47%

El Palmar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Montecasillas 2–1 El Palmar

Montecasillas beat El Palmar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas in Murcia.