Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montecasillas vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Montecasillas
Montecasillas
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
9/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecasillas32%
×Draw24%
Balsicas Atlético44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecasillas
1.39
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

Balsicas Atlético creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Montecasillas
1.12
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

Montecasillas
2.47
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

Montecasillas+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecasillas ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Montecasillas or draw
56%
Montecasillas or Balsicas Atlético
76%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
68%

Winning margin

Montecasillas wins by 2+
15%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Montecasillas 1+ goals
75%
Montecasillas 2+ goals
40%
Montecasillas 3+ goals
16%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
81%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
49%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Montecasillas (draw refunded)
43%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecasillas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecasillas attack 1.12 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Montecasillas defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montecasillas scores more
32%
level
24%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
44%

Balsicas Atlético at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Montecasillas 0–4 Balsicas Atlético

Balsicas Atlético beat Montecasillas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas in Murcia.