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Montebelluna vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
1/21/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montebelluna39%
×Draw27%
Virtus Bolzano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.27
Virtus Bolzano
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 34 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
66%
Montebelluna or Virtus Bolzano
73%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
61%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
17%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
72%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
36%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
14%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
69%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
33%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
53%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montebelluna scores more
39%
level
27%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
34%

Montebelluna at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montebelluna vs Virtus Bolzano

Montebelluna and Virtus Bolzano drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.