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Montebelluna vs Treviso — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Treviso
Treviso
A. Afi 87'
F. Posocco 90+3'
Y. G. Gnago 73'
11/26/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montebelluna28%
×Draw26%
Treviso47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.09
Treviso
1.50

Treviso creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 53 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Treviso
1.55

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Treviso
1.00

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Treviso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
53%
Montebelluna or Treviso
74%
Draw or Treviso
72%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
11%
Treviso wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
66%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
30%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
10%
Treviso 1+ goals
78%
Treviso 2+ goals
44%
Treviso 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
37%
Treviso (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Treviso attack 1.55 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montebelluna scores more
28%
level
26%
Treviso scores more
47%

Treviso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
Y. G. Gnago
87'
A. Afi
90+3'
F. Posocco

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montebelluna 1–2 Treviso

Treviso beat Montebelluna 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 26, 2023.

Goals: Y. G. Gnago (73'), A. Afi (87'), F. Posocco (90+3').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.