Montebelluna 1–1 San Luigi: Result & Stats

Montebelluna

FT

1 – 1

San Luigi

11/10/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 13Stadio San Vigilio (Montebelluna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Montebelluna41%

×Draw26%

San Luigi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontebellunaExpected goals in this matchSan Luigi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.28

Montebelluna

1.43

San Luigi

1.28

Montebelluna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

1.10

1.46

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Montebelluna

1.18

San Luigi

1.10

allows per match

Montebelluna

1.46

San Luigi

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par

San Luigi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

San Luigi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw

66%

Montebelluna or San Luigi

74%

Draw or San Luigi

59%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+

19%

San Luigi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals

76%

Montebelluna 2+ goals

42%

Montebelluna 3+ goals

17%

San Luigi 1+ goals

72%

San Luigi 2+ goals

37%

San Luigi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)

55%

San Luigi (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

San Luigi away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + San Luigi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.43

San Luigi attack 1.10 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montebelluna scores more

41%

level

26%

San Luigi scores more

34%

Montebelluna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff