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Montebelluna vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
10/1/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Montebelluna42%
×Draw26%
Portogruaro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.44
Portogruaro
1.21

Montebelluna creates 19% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 70 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
68%
Montebelluna or Portogruaro
74%
Draw or Portogruaro
58%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
20%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
76%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
42%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
18%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
70%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
34%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
57%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montebelluna scores more
42%
level
26%
Portogruaro scores more
32%

Montebelluna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montebelluna 1–1 Portogruaro

Montebelluna and Portogruaro drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.