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Montebelluna vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
G. Madiotto 45+1'
Mendes 45'
S. Pozza 15'
10/28/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montebelluna54%
×Draw24%
Mori Santo Stefano22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.71
Mori Santo Stefano
0.99

Montebelluna creates 73% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
78%
Montebelluna or Mori Santo Stefano
76%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
46%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
30%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
82%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
51%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
24%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
63%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
26%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
71%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Montebelluna scores more
54%
level
24%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
22%

Montebelluna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Pozza
45'
Mendes
45+1'
G. Madiotto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montebelluna vs Mori Santo Stefano

Montebelluna beat Mori Santo Stefano 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 28, 2023.

Goals: S. Pozza (15'), Mendes (45'), G. Madiotto (45+1').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.