Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montebelluna vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
4/14/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montebelluna35%
×Draw26%
Montecchio Maggiore39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.31
Montecchio Maggiore
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 53 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
61%
Montebelluna or Montecchio Maggiore
74%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
65%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
16%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
73%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
38%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
14%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
75%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
40%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
48%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montebelluna scores more
35%
level
26%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
39%

Montecchio Maggiore at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montebelluna vs Montecchio Maggiore

Montebelluna and Montecchio Maggiore drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.