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Montebelluna vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Luparense
Luparense
N. Fasan 86'
N. Visinoni 75'
G. Madiotto 34'
L. Rivi 53'
5/1/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Montebelluna35%
×Draw27%
Luparense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.24
Luparense
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 101 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
61%
Montebelluna or Luparense
73%
Draw or Luparense
65%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
15%
Luparense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
71%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
35%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
13%
Luparense 1+ goals
74%
Luparense 2+ goals
38%
Luparense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
47%
Luparense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Luparense attack 1.21 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montebelluna scores more
35%
level
27%
Luparense scores more
39%

Luparense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
G. Madiotto
53'
L. Rivi
75'
N. Visinoni
86'
N. Fasan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montebelluna vs Luparense

Montebelluna beat Luparense 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on May 1, 2022.

Goals: G. Madiotto (34'), L. Rivi (53'), N. Visinoni (75'), N. Fasan (86').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.