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Montebelluna vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
1 – 0
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
10/30/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 11Stadio San Vigilio (Montebelluna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Montebelluna36%
×Draw27%
Delta Porto Tolle37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.27
Delta Porto Tolle
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 30 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
63%
Montebelluna or Delta Porto Tolle
73%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
64%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
16%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
72%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
36%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
14%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
72%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
37%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
49%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Montebelluna scores more
36%
level
27%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
37%

Delta Porto Tolle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montebelluna vs Delta Porto Tolle

Montebelluna beat Delta Porto Tolle 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio (Montebelluna).