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Montebelluna vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
G. Sagrillo 80'
11/5/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montebelluna32%
×Draw29%
Bassano Virtus39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.05
Bassano Virtus
1.19

Bassano Virtus creates 13% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 53 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
61%
Montebelluna or Bassano Virtus
71%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
68%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
12%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
65%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
28%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
9%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
70%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
33%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
45%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montebelluna scores more
32%
level
29%
Bassano Virtus scores more
39%

Bassano Virtus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
80'
G. Sagrillo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montebelluna vs Bassano Virtus

Bassano Virtus beat Montebelluna 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 5, 2023.

Goals: G. Sagrillo (80').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.