Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montebelluna vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
L. Longato 71'
N. Fasan 32'
L. Sarli 61'
Y. G. Gnago 14'
2/6/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montebelluna24%
×Draw24%
Arzignano Valchiampo52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.12
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.76

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.06

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.06

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
48%
Montebelluna or Arzignano Valchiampo
76%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
76%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
9%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
67%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
31%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
10%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
83%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
52%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
32%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montebelluna scores more
24%
level
24%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
52%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Y. G. Gnago
32'
N. Fasan
61'
L. Sarli
71'
71'
L. Longato

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montebelluna 2 – 2 Arzignano Valchiampo

Montebelluna and Arzignano Valchiampo drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on February 6, 2022.

Goals: Y. G. Gnago (14'), N. Fasan (32'), L. Sarli (61'), L. Longato (71').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.