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Montebelluna vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
FT
2 – 0
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
N. Fasan 45+1'
G. Madiotto 30' (pen)
11/7/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Montebelluna34%
×Draw27%
Ambrosiana39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.22
Ambrosiana
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
61%
Montebelluna or Ambrosiana
73%
Draw or Ambrosiana
66%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
15%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
70%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
34%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
12%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
73%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
38%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
47%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montebelluna scores more
34%
level
27%
Ambrosiana scores more
39%

Ambrosiana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
G. MadiottoPenalty
45+1'
N. Fasan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montebelluna 2–0 Ambrosiana

Montebelluna beat Ambrosiana 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 7, 2021.

Goals: G. Madiotto (30' pen), N. Fasan (45+1').

The match was played at Stadio San Vigilio in Montebelluna.