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Monte vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Monte
Monte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
9/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo San Juan de Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monte27%
×Draw24%
Guarnizo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte
1.19
Guarnizo
1.68

Guarnizo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Monte
1.18
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Monte
2.12
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Monte+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monte or draw
51%
Monte or Guarnizo
76%
Draw or Guarnizo
73%

Winning margin

Monte wins by 2+
11%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Monte 1+ goals
70%
Monte 2+ goals
33%
Monte 3+ goals
12%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
81%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
50%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Monte (draw refunded)
36%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte attack 1.18 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Monte defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monte scores more
27%
level
24%
Guarnizo scores more
49%

Guarnizo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Monte 1–0 Guarnizo

Monte beat Guarnizo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Juan de Monte in Santander.