Monte 2–4 Atlético Albericia: Result & Stats

Monte

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Atlético Albericia

9/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Campo San Juan de Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monte27%

×Draw23%

Atlético Albericia50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonteExpected goals in this matchAtlético Albericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.85

Monte

1.31

Atlético Albericia

1.85

Atlético Albericia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

1.18

creates per match

1.57

2.12

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Monte

1.18

Atlético Albericia

1.57

allows per match

Monte

2.12

Atlético Albericia

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monte+0.00on par

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte ↓

Atlético Albericia →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Monte or draw

50%

Monte or Atlético Albericia

77%

Draw or Atlético Albericia

73%

Winning margin

Monte wins by 2+

12%

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Monte 1+ goals

73%

Monte 2+ goals

38%

Monte 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Albericia 2+ goals

55%

Atlético Albericia 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Monte (draw refunded)

35%

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Monte at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Monte attack 1.18 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Monte defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Monte scores more

27%

level

23%

Atlético Albericia scores more

50%

Atlético Albericia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Monte 2–4 Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Monte 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo San Juan de Monte in Santander.

Monte vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Monte 2–4 Atlético Albericia