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Monte Carlo vs Toi Seng — Primeira Divisão 2026

Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Toi Seng
Toi Seng
4/30/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 9Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Monte Carlo83%
×Draw10%
Toi Seng7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte Carlo
3.56
Toi Seng
1.00

Monte Carlo creates 256% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Monte Carlo
3.75
Toi Seng
1.13

allows per match

Monte Carlo
0.88
Toi Seng
3.38

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par
Toi Seng+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

Toi Seng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw
93%
Monte Carlo or Toi Seng
90%
Draw or Toi Seng
17%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+
66%
Toi Seng wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals
97%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
86%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
67%
Toi Seng 1+ goals
63%
Toi Seng 2+ goals
26%
Toi Seng 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
92%
Toi Seng (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Toi Seng away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + Toi Seng defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.56

Toi Seng attack 1.13 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Monte Carlo scores more
83%
level
10%
Toi Seng scores more
7%

Monte Carlo at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Monte Carlo 7–0 Toi Seng

Monte Carlo beat Toi Seng 7-0 in Primeira Divisão on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.