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Monte Carlo vs CPK — Primeira Divisão 2026

Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
FT
1 – 3
CPK
CPK
4/22/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Monte Carlo30%
×Draw18%
CPK52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte Carlo
2.25
CPK
2.92

CPK creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

creates per match

Monte Carlo
3.75
CPK
4.97

allows per match

Monte Carlo
0.88
CPK
0.76

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par
CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

CPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw
48%
Monte Carlo or CPK
82%
Draw or CPK
70%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+
16%
CPK wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals
89%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
65%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
39%
CPK 1+ goals
94%
CPK 2+ goals
78%
CPK 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
37%
CPK (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 2.25

CPK attack 4.97 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monte Carlo scores more
30%
level
18%
CPK scores more
52%

CPK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Monte Carlo 1–3 CPK

CPK beat Monte Carlo 3-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.