Monte Carlo 0–1 Benfica: Result & Stats

Monte Carlo

FT

0 – 1

Benfica

5/13/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 11Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Monte Carlo60%

×Draw18%

Benfica22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monte CarloExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.63

Monte Carlo

2.71

Benfica

1.63

Monte Carlo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

3.75

creates per match

2.38

0.88

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Monte Carlo

3.75

Benfica

2.38

allows per match

Monte Carlo

0.88

Benfica

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw

78%

Monte Carlo or Benfica

82%

Draw or Benfica

40%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+

40%

Benfica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals

93%

Monte Carlo 2+ goals

75%

Monte Carlo 3+ goals

50%

Benfica 1+ goals

80%

Benfica 2+ goals

48%

Benfica 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)

73%

Benfica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + Benfica defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.71

Benfica attack 2.38 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Monte Carlo scores more

60%

level

18%

Benfica scores more

22%

Monte Carlo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff