Monte Azul 2–1 Uberlandia: Result & Stats | Serie D

Monte Azul

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Uberlandia

Pedoca 80'

Lucas Cezane 58'

Victor Feitosa 13'

5/31/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Otacília Patrício Arroyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Monte Azul29%

×Draw28%

Uberlandia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monte AzulExpected goals in this matchUberlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.29

Monte Azul

1.00

Uberlandia

1.29

Uberlandia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

1.00

creates per match

1.28

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Monte Azul

1.00

Uberlandia

1.28

allows per match

Monte Azul

1.29

Uberlandia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monte Azul+0.00on par

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Azul ↓

Uberlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Monte Azul or draw

57%

Monte Azul or Uberlandia

72%

Draw or Uberlandia

71%

Winning margin

Monte Azul wins by 2+

11%

Uberlandia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Monte Azul 1+ goals

63%

Monte Azul 2+ goals

26%

Monte Azul 3+ goals

8%

Uberlandia 1+ goals

72%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

37%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monte Azul (draw refunded)

40%

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Azul at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Azul attack 1.00 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Uberlandia attack 1.28 + Monte Azul defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Monte Azul scores more

29%

level

28%

Uberlandia scores more

43%

Uberlandia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Victor Feitosa

58'

Lucas Cezane

80'

Pedoca

Monte

Uberlandia

⚽

⚽

Manager: Kinho Forgiarini

Monte Azul substitutes

PedocaRicharlesFernandesHenriqueBajañaHandersonViniciusGoulartEdmilsonEullerKaikyNeto

Manager: Alexandre Lopes

Uberlandia substitutes

LuizinhoRosaTchêRenanGottemsJoandersonKlausBrendoCarneiroHenriqueSchimaltz