Monte Azul 1–1 Cianorte: Result & Stats | Serie D

Monte Azul

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cianorte

Gui Sales 90' (pen)

Caique 19'

5/10/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Otacília Patrício Arroyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Monte Azul30%

×Draw31%

Cianorte39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monte AzulExpected goals in this matchCianorte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.08

Monte Azul

0.91

Cianorte

1.08

Cianorte creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.88

1.29

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Monte Azul

1.00

Cianorte

0.88

allows per match

Monte Azul

1.29

Cianorte

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monte Azul+0.00on par

Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Azul ↓

Cianorte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Monte Azul or draw

61%

Monte Azul or Cianorte

69%

Draw or Cianorte

70%

Winning margin

Monte Azul wins by 2+

11%

Cianorte wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Monte Azul 1+ goals

60%

Monte Azul 2+ goals

23%

Monte Azul 3+ goals

6%

Cianorte 1+ goals

66%

Cianorte 2+ goals

29%

Cianorte 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Monte Azul (draw refunded)

44%

Cianorte (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Azul at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Azul attack 1.00 + Cianorte defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Cianorte attack 0.88 + Monte Azul defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monte Azul scores more

30%

level

31%

Cianorte scores more

39%

Cianorte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Caique

90'

Gui SalesPenalty

Monte

Cianorte

⚽

⚽

Manager: Kinho Forgiarini

Monte Azul substitutes

KevenPedocaIbrahimDávissonViniciusKrugerHenriqueJonathanKaikyNetoMauricioEdmilson

Manager: Renato Peixe

Cianorte substitutes

PalafozSchulzIvoUdehRamomTiepoMellerDanrleyDaviCoutinhoMalthusPeu