Montceau 1–4 Lyon Duchere: Result & Stats

Montceau

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Lyon Duchere

R. Gouliat 36'

H. Gradai 70', 53'

C. Tuta 41' (pen)

F. Julienne 2'

11/17/2018

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade des Alouettes (Montceau-les-Mines)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Montceau20%

×Draw20%

Lyon Duchere59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontceauExpected goals in this matchLyon Duchere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.16

Montceau

1.18

Lyon Duchere

2.16

Lyon Duchere creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

2.57

1.75

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Montceau

1.50

Lyon Duchere

2.57

allows per match

Montceau

1.75

Lyon Duchere

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montceau+0.00on par

Lyon Duchere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montceau ↓

Lyon Duchere →

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Montceau or draw

41%

Montceau or Lyon Duchere

80%

Draw or Lyon Duchere

80%

Winning margin

Montceau wins by 2+

Lyon Duchere wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Montceau 1+ goals

69%

Montceau 2+ goals

33%

Montceau 3+ goals

12%

Lyon Duchere 1+ goals

88%

Lyon Duchere 2+ goals

63%

Lyon Duchere 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Montceau (draw refunded)

25%

Lyon Duchere (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montceau at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Lyon Duchere away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montceau attack 1.50 + Lyon Duchere defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lyon Duchere attack 2.57 + Montceau defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Montceau scores more

20%

level

20%

Lyon Duchere scores more

59%

Lyon Duchere at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lyon Duchere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

F. Julienne

33'

H. Gradai← B. Thetika

36'

R. Gouliat

41'

C. TutaPenalty

53'

H. Gradai

70'

H. Gradai

73'

A. Rougeot← P. Mvondo

78'

N. Dhib← Y. NDiaye

81'

C. Berkache← P. Dimitriou

87'

Lucas Roncato← R. Gouliat

Montceau

Lyon

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gouliat

Yuri

Manager: J. Foret

73'▲A. Rougeot←▼P. Mvondo

81'▲C. Berkache←▼P. Dimitriou

87'▲Lucas Roncato←▼R. Gouliat

Montceau substitutes

RougeotBerkacheRoncatoDraméKhadari

Manager: K. Mokeddem

33'▲H. Gradai←▼B. Thetika

78'▲N. Dhib←▼Y. NDiaye

Lyon Duchere substitutes

GradaiDhibShiashiaBlaichetKoffi-Kpondu

Coupe de France: Montceau 1–4 Lyon Duchere

Lyon Duchere beat Montceau 4-1 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2018.

Goals: F. Julienne (2'), R. Gouliat (36'), C. Tuta (41' pen), H. Gradai (53', 70').

The match was played at Stade des Alouettes (Montceau-les-Mines).

Montceau vs Lyon Duchere — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Montceau 1–4 Lyon Duchere