Montauban TG 2–2 Olympique d'Alès: Result & Stats

Montauban TG

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Olympique d'Alès

10/29/2022

Coupe de France · 7th RoundComplexe Sportif Jean Verbeke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montauban TG12%

×Draw17%

Olympique d'Alès72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montauban TGExpected goals in this matchOlympique d'Alès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.46

Montauban TG

0.88

Olympique d'Alès

2.46

Olympique d'Alès creates 180% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.25

2.67

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Montauban TG

1.00

Olympique d'Alès

2.25

allows per match

Montauban TG

2.67

Olympique d'Alès

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montauban TG+0.00on par

Olympique d'Alès+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montauban TG ↓

Olympique d'Alès →

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–39%

0–45%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Montauban TG or draw

28%

Montauban TG or Olympique d'Alès

83%

Draw or Olympique d'Alès

88%

Winning margin

Montauban TG wins by 2+

Olympique d'Alès wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Montauban TG 1+ goals

59%

Montauban TG 2+ goals

22%

Montauban TG 3+ goals

Olympique d'Alès 1+ goals

91%

Olympique d'Alès 2+ goals

70%

Olympique d'Alès 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Montauban TG (draw refunded)

14%

Olympique d'Alès (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montauban TG at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Olympique d'Alès away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montauban TG attack 1.00 + Olympique d'Alès defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Olympique d'Alès attack 2.25 + Montauban TG defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Montauban TG scores more

12%

level

17%

Olympique d'Alès scores more

72%

Olympique d'Alès at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Olympique d'Alès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff