Montañesa 1–2 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Montañesa

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranca

11/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Montañesa44%

×Draw27%

Vilafranca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontañesaExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

Montañesa

1.40

Vilafranca

1.08

Montañesa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

1.12

1.05

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Montañesa

1.21

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Montañesa

1.05

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montañesa+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañesa ↓

Vilafranca →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montañesa or draw

71%

Montañesa or Vilafranca

73%

Draw or Vilafranca

56%

Winning margin

Montañesa wins by 2+

21%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montañesa 1+ goals

75%

Montañesa 2+ goals

41%

Montañesa 3+ goals

17%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

66%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

29%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Montañesa (draw refunded)

60%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montañesa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montañesa attack 1.21 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Montañesa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montañesa scores more

44%

level

27%

Vilafranca scores more

29%

Montañesa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montañesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff