Montañesa 2–1 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Montañesa

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rapitenca

Alhaji Sanneh 69', 57'

Chico 15' (pen)

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Montañesa49%

×Draw26%

Rapitenca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontañesaExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.99

Montañesa

1.50

Rapitenca

0.99

Montañesa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 32 away

1.21

creates per match

0.94

1.05

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Montañesa

1.21

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Montañesa

1.05

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montañesa+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañesa ↓

Rapitenca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montañesa or draw

75%

Montañesa or Rapitenca

74%

Draw or Rapitenca

51%

Winning margin

Montañesa wins by 2+

25%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Montañesa 1+ goals

78%

Montañesa 2+ goals

44%

Montañesa 3+ goals

19%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

63%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

26%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montañesa (draw refunded)

66%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montañesa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montañesa attack 1.21 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Montañesa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Montañesa scores more

49%

level

26%

Rapitenca scores more

25%

Montañesa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Montañesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

ChicoPenalty

57'

Alhaji Sanneh

61'

Kevin Alarcón← Joaquin Peñalver

61'

Marc Gabaldon← Manel Montoya

64'

Albert Saragossa← Álex Forés

69'

Alhaji Sanneh

74'

Alex Amate← Bargalló

77'

Alex Samper← Moussa Bandeh

77'

Adam Hafidh← Chico

78'

Rosa← Jonathan Linares

78'

Sergi Barjuan← Ismael Moyano

84'

Ian Arqués← Lolo Garrido

84'

Marc Barragán← Airam Benito

Montañesa

Rapitenca

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Raul Paje

61'▲Kevin Alarcón←▼Joaquin Peñalver

61'▲Marc Gabaldon←▼Manel Montoya

74'▲Alex Amate←▼Bargalló

78'▲Rosa←▼Jonathan Linares

78'▲Sergi Barjuan←▼Ismael Moyano

Montañesa substitutes

AlarcónGabaldonAmateRosaBarjuan

Manager: Carlos Ríos

64'▲Albert Saragossa←▼Álex Forés

77'▲Alex Samper←▼Moussa Bandeh

77'▲Adam Hafidh←▼Chico

84'▲Ian Arqués←▼Lolo Garrido

84'▲Marc Barragán←▼Airam Benito

Rapitenca substitutes

SaragossaSamperHafidhArquésBarragán

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Montañesa 2–1 Rapitenca

Montañesa beat Rapitenca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 17, 2023.

Goals: Chico (15' pen), Alhaji Sanneh (57', 69').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris in Barcelona.

Montañesa vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Montañesa 2–1 Rapitenca