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Montañesa vs Prat — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Montañesa
Montañesa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Prat
Prat
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 21Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montañesa42%
×Draw28%
Prat30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montañesa
1.25
Prat
1.02

Montañesa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 34 away

creates per match

Montañesa
1.21
Prat
1.00

allows per match

Montañesa
1.05
Prat
1.29

finishing

Montañesa+0.00on par
Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañesa ↓

Prat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Montañesa or draw
70%
Montañesa or Prat
72%
Draw or Prat
58%

Winning margin

Montañesa wins by 2+
18%
Prat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Montañesa 1+ goals
71%
Montañesa 2+ goals
36%
Montañesa 3+ goals
13%
Prat 1+ goals
64%
Prat 2+ goals
27%
Prat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Montañesa (draw refunded)
58%
Prat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montañesa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montañesa attack 1.21 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Prat attack 1.00 + Montañesa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montañesa scores more
42%
level
28%
Prat scores more
30%

Montañesa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montañesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montañesa vs Prat

Montañesa and Prat drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris in Barcelona.