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Montañesa vs Igualada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Montañesa
Montañesa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Igualada
Igualada
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Montañesa52%
×Draw25%
Igualada23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montañesa
1.60
Igualada
0.99

Montañesa creates 62% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 28 away

creates per match

Montañesa
1.21
Igualada
0.93

allows per match

Montañesa
1.05
Igualada
2.00

finishing

Montañesa+0.00on par
Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañesa ↓

Igualada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montañesa or draw
77%
Montañesa or Igualada
75%
Draw or Igualada
48%

Winning margin

Montañesa wins by 2+
27%
Igualada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Montañesa 1+ goals
80%
Montañesa 2+ goals
47%
Montañesa 3+ goals
22%
Igualada 1+ goals
63%
Igualada 2+ goals
26%
Igualada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Montañesa (draw refunded)
69%
Igualada (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montañesa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montañesa attack 1.21 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Igualada attack 0.93 + Montañesa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montañesa scores more
52%
level
25%
Igualada scores more
23%

Montañesa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montañesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Montañesa 0–2 Igualada

Igualada beat Montañesa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris in Barcelona.