Montañesa 0–1 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Montañesa

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Castelldefels

Kevin Díaz 75'

4/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Montañesa40%

×Draw28%

Castelldefels32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontañesaExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Montañesa

1.23

Castelldefels

1.06

Montañesa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

1.05

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Montañesa

1.21

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Montañesa

1.05

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montañesa+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañesa ↓

Castelldefels →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Montañesa or draw

68%

Montañesa or Castelldefels

72%

Draw or Castelldefels

60%

Winning margin

Montañesa wins by 2+

17%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Montañesa 1+ goals

71%

Montañesa 2+ goals

35%

Montañesa 3+ goals

13%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

65%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

29%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montañesa (draw refunded)

56%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montañesa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 81 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montañesa attack 1.21 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Montañesa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montañesa scores more

40%

level

28%

Castelldefels scores more

32%

Montañesa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montañesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Fran Orellana← Isaac Padilla

58'

Alberto Salamanca← Mario Gerboles

60'

Abodlai Bandeh← Marc Muñoz

60'

F. Osorio← Roland Garrós

60'

Miguel Sanvidal← Ismael Moyano

65'

Pedro Bilbao← Jonathan Linares

74'

Alhaji Sanneh← Eric Jiménez

75'

Kevin Díaz

80'

Sergi Barjuan← Kevin Díaz

Montañesa

Castelldefels

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raul Paje

60'▲Abodlai Bandeh←▼Marc Muñoz

60'▲F. Osorio←▼Roland Garrós

60'▲Miguel Sanvidal←▼Ismael Moyano

65'▲Pedro Bilbao←▼Jonathan Linares

74'▲Alhaji Sanneh←▼Eric Jiménez

Montañesa substitutes

BandehOsorioSanvidalBilbaoSanneh

Manager: Miki Carrillo

58'▲Fran Orellana←▼Isaac Padilla

58'▲Alberto Salamanca←▼Mario Gerboles

80'▲Sergi Barjuan←▼Kevin Díaz

Castelldefels substitutes

OrellanaSalamancaBarjuan

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Montañesa 0–1 Castelldefels

Castelldefels beat Montañesa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 16, 2023.

Goals: Kevin Díaz (75').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nou Barris in Barcelona.

Montañesa vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Montañesa 0–1 Castelldefels