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Montañas Pas vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Montañas Pas
Montañas Pas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Torina
Torina
10/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas36%
×Draw26%
Torina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montañas Pas
1.34
Torina
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Montañas Pas
1.47
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Montañas Pas
1.71
Torina
1.21

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw
62%
Montañas Pas or Torina
74%
Draw or Torina
64%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+
16%
Torina wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals
74%
Montañas Pas 2+ goals
39%
Montañas Pas 3+ goals
15%
Torina 1+ goals
75%
Torina 2+ goals
40%
Torina 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)
49%
Torina (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Torina attack 1.05 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Montañas Pas scores more
36%
level
26%
Torina scores more
38%

Torina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montañas Pas vs Torina

Torina beat Montañas Pas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo in San Vicente de Toranzo.