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Montañas Pas vs Noja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Montañas Pas
Montañas Pas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Noja
Noja
9/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas50%
×Draw23%
Noja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montañas Pas
1.81
Noja
1.25

Montañas Pas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Montañas Pas
1.47
Noja
0.78

allows per match

Montañas Pas
1.71
Noja
2.16

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par
Noja+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Noja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw
74%
Montañas Pas or Noja
77%
Draw or Noja
50%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+
28%
Noja wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals
84%
Montañas Pas 2+ goals
54%
Montañas Pas 3+ goals
27%
Noja 1+ goals
71%
Noja 2+ goals
36%
Noja 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)
66%
Noja (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Noja away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Noja defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Noja attack 0.78 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Montañas Pas scores more
50%
level
23%
Noja scores more
26%

Montañas Pas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Montañas Pas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Montañas Pas 0–0 Noja

Montañas Pas and Noja drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo in San Vicente de Toranzo.