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Montañas Pas vs Escobedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Montañas Pas
Montañas Pas
FT
3 – 7
HT: 2 – 5
Escobedo
Escobedo
5/9/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas32%
×Draw25%
Escobedo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montañas Pas
1.29
Escobedo
1.51

Escobedo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

Montañas Pas
1.47
Escobedo
1.31

allows per match

Montañas Pas
1.71
Escobedo
1.10

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par
Escobedo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Escobedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw
58%
Montañas Pas or Escobedo
75%
Draw or Escobedo
68%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+
14%
Escobedo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals
72%
Montañas Pas 2+ goals
37%
Montañas Pas 3+ goals
14%
Escobedo 1+ goals
78%
Escobedo 2+ goals
44%
Escobedo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)
43%
Escobedo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Escobedo away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Escobedo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Escobedo attack 1.31 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montañas Pas scores more
32%
level
25%
Escobedo scores more
42%

Escobedo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Escobedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Montañas Pas 3–7 Escobedo

Escobedo beat Montañas Pas 7-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo in San Vicente de Toranzo.