Montañas Pas 3–1 Bezana: Result & Stats

Montañas Pas

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bezana

2/28/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas36%

×Draw25%

Bezana39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montañas PasExpected goals in this matchBezana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.47

Montañas Pas

1.40

Bezana

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

1.47

creates per match

1.23

1.71

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Montañas Pas

1.47

Bezana

1.23

allows per match

Montañas Pas

1.71

Bezana

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Bezana →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw

61%

Montañas Pas or Bezana

75%

Draw or Bezana

64%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+

16%

Bezana wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals

75%

Montañas Pas 2+ goals

41%

Montañas Pas 3+ goals

17%

Bezana 1+ goals

77%

Bezana 2+ goals

43%

Bezana 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)

48%

Bezana (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bezana attack 1.23 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montañas Pas scores more

36%

level

25%

Bezana scores more

39%

Bezana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montañas Pas vs Bezana

Montañas Pas beat Bezana 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo in San Vicente de Toranzo.

Montañas Pas vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Montañas Pas vs Bezana