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Montañas Pas vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Montañas Pas
Montañas Pas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
1/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montañas Pas34%
×Draw24%
Atlético Albericia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montañas Pas
1.46
Atlético Albericia
1.64

Atlético Albericia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

Montañas Pas
1.47
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Montañas Pas
1.71
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Montañas Pas+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montañas Pas ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Montañas Pas or draw
58%
Montañas Pas or Atlético Albericia
76%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
66%

Winning margin

Montañas Pas wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Montañas Pas 1+ goals
77%
Montañas Pas 2+ goals
43%
Montañas Pas 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)
45%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montañas Pas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montañas Pas attack 1.47 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Montañas Pas defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montañas Pas scores more
34%
level
24%
Atlético Albericia scores more
42%

Atlético Albericia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montañas Pas vs Atlético Albericia

Montañas Pas beat Atlético Albericia 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol San Vicente de Toranzo in San Vicente de Toranzo.