Montana 1–1 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dobrudzha

3/11/2025

Second League · Round 25Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Montana54%

×Draw26%

Dobrudzha20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.81

Montana

1.50

Dobrudzha

0.81

Montana creates 85% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 101 away

1.59

creates per match

0.89

0.73

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Montana

1.59

Dobrudzha

0.89

allows per match

Montana

0.73

Dobrudzha

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Montana or draw

80%

Montana or Dobrudzha

74%

Draw or Dobrudzha

46%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

28%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

78%

Montana 2+ goals

44%

Montana 3+ goals

19%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

56%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

19%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

73%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Montana scores more

54%

level

26%

Dobrudzha scores more

20%

Montana at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff