Montana 1–2 CSKA Sofia: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CSKA Sofia

N. Minkov 78'

A. Sowe 76'

R. Senhadji 8' (OG)

11/8/2020

First League · Round 12Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Montana23%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.59

Montana

0.96

CSKA Sofia

1.59

CSKA Sofia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

0.75

creates per match

1.58

1.60

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Montana

0.75

CSKA Sofia

1.58

allows per match

Montana

1.60

CSKA Sofia

1.18

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Montana-0.32scores less

CSKA Sofia-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

CSKA Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montana or draw

48%

Montana or CSKA Sofia

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia

77%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

8%

CSKA Sofia wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

62%

Montana 2+ goals

25%

Montana 3+ goals

7%

CSKA Sofia 1+ goals

80%

CSKA Sofia 2+ goals

47%

CSKA Sofia 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

31%

CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.60 · 7 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.75 + CSKA Sofia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.96

CSKA Sofia attack 1.58 + Montana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montana scores more

23%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia scores more

52%

CSKA Sofia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. SenhadjiOwn goal

52'

David Kiki

60'

Stefan Kamenov

63'

Bradley Mazikou

64'

N. Tsvetkov← S. Kamenov

70'

Geferson← A. Ahmedov

70'

J. Sinclair← Henrique

76'

A. Sowe

78'

Y. Yordanov← V. Aytov

78'

N. Minkov

87'

G. Yomov← G. Carey

88'

Amos Youga

88'

S. Beltrame← Tiago Rodrigues

90+1'

V. Antov← B. Mazikou

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MontanaCSKA

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots9

2Corners7

13Fouls22

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target6

3Off Target3

Passing

38%Possession62%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls22

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1