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Montana vs Beroe — First League 2018

Montana
Montana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beroe
Beroe
4/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montana36%
×Draw28%
Beroe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.19
Beroe
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 138 away

creates per match

Montana
0.91
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Montana
1.44
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw
64%
Montana or Beroe
72%
Draw or Beroe
64%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
15%
Beroe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
70%
Montana 2+ goals
33%
Montana 3+ goals
12%
Beroe 1+ goals
70%
Beroe 2+ goals
33%
Beroe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
50%
Beroe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.91 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Beroe attack 0.93 + Montana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Montana scores more
36%
level
28%
Beroe scores more
36%

Montana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Montana 1–1 Beroe

Montana and Beroe drew 1-1 in First League on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.