Montana 3–3 Arda Kardzhali: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Arda Kardzhali

8/8/2020

First League · Round 1Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montana31%

×Draw29%

Arda Kardzhali40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.21

Montana

1.04

Arda Kardzhali

1.21

Arda Kardzhali creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 120 away

0.91

creates per match

0.99

1.44

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Montana

0.91

Arda Kardzhali

0.99

allows per match

Montana

1.44

Arda Kardzhali

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Montana or draw

60%

Montana or Arda Kardzhali

71%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

69%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

12%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

65%

Montana 2+ goals

28%

Montana 3+ goals

9%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

70%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

34%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

44%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.91 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Montana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montana scores more

31%

level

29%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

40%

Arda Kardzhali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff