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Montalegre vs Vila Cortez — Taça de Portugal 2018

Montalegre
Montalegre
FT
3 – 1
Vila Cortez
Vila Cortez
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montalegre42%
×Draw22%
Vila Cortez36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montalegre
1.86
Vila Cortez
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Montalegre
1.40
Vila Cortez
2.00

allows per match

Montalegre
1.40
Vila Cortez
2.33

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par
Vila Cortez+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Vila Cortez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw
64%
Montalegre or Vila Cortez
78%
Draw or Vila Cortez
58%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+
23%
Vila Cortez wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals
84%
Montalegre 2+ goals
55%
Montalegre 3+ goals
28%
Vila Cortez 1+ goals
82%
Vila Cortez 2+ goals
51%
Vila Cortez 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)
54%
Vila Cortez (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Vila Cortez away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.40 + Vila Cortez defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Vila Cortez attack 2.00 + Montalegre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montalegre scores more
42%
level
22%
Vila Cortez scores more
36%

Montalegre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montalegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montalegre vs Vila Cortez

Montalegre beat Vila Cortez 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira in Montalegre.