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Montalegre vs Pedras Salgadas — Taça de Portugal 2018

Montalegre
Montalegre
FT
2 – 3
Pedras Salgadas
Pedras Salgadas
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira (Montalegre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montalegre29%
×Draw21%
Pedras Salgadas49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montalegre
1.53
Pedras Salgadas
2.04

Pedras Salgadas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Montalegre
1.40
Pedras Salgadas
2.67

allows per match

Montalegre
1.40
Pedras Salgadas
1.67

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par
Pedras Salgadas+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Pedras Salgadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw
51%
Montalegre or Pedras Salgadas
79%
Draw or Pedras Salgadas
71%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+
13%
Pedras Salgadas wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals
78%
Montalegre 2+ goals
45%
Montalegre 3+ goals
20%
Pedras Salgadas 1+ goals
87%
Pedras Salgadas 2+ goals
60%
Pedras Salgadas 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)
37%
Pedras Salgadas (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Pedras Salgadas away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.40 + Pedras Salgadas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Pedras Salgadas attack 2.67 + Montalegre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Montalegre scores more
29%
level
21%
Pedras Salgadas scores more
49%

Pedras Salgadas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pedras Salgadas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montalegre vs Pedras Salgadas

Pedras Salgadas beat Montalegre 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira (Montalegre).