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Montalegre vs Oriental Lisboa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Montalegre
Montalegre
FT
2 – 1
Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
10/21/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira (Montalegre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Montalegre40%
×Draw25%
Oriental Lisboa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montalegre
1.50
Oriental Lisboa
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Montalegre
1.40
Oriental Lisboa
1.40

allows per match

Montalegre
1.40
Oriental Lisboa
1.60

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par
Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Oriental Lisboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw
65%
Montalegre or Oriental Lisboa
75%
Draw or Oriental Lisboa
60%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+
19%
Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals
78%
Montalegre 2+ goals
44%
Montalegre 3+ goals
19%
Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
75%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
41%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)
53%
Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.40 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oriental Lisboa attack 1.40 + Montalegre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montalegre scores more
40%
level
25%
Oriental Lisboa scores more
35%

Montalegre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montalegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montalegre vs Oriental Lisboa

Montalegre beat Oriental Lisboa 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira (Montalegre).