Montalegre 0–1 Marinhense: Result & Stats

Montalegre

FT

0 – 1

Marinhense

9/29/2019

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Montalegre16%

×Draw20%

Marinhense64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontalegreExpected goals in this matchMarinhense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.20

Montalegre

1.00

Marinhense

2.20

Marinhense creates 120% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

3.00

1.40

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Montalegre

1.40

Marinhense

3.00

allows per match

Montalegre

1.40

Marinhense

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montalegre+0.00on par

Marinhense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montalegre ↓

Marinhense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Montalegre or draw

36%

Montalegre or Marinhense

80%

Draw or Marinhense

84%

Winning margin

Montalegre wins by 2+

6%

Marinhense wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Montalegre 1+ goals

63%

Montalegre 2+ goals

26%

Montalegre 3+ goals

8%

Marinhense 1+ goals

89%

Marinhense 2+ goals

64%

Marinhense 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Montalegre (draw refunded)

20%

Marinhense (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montalegre at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Marinhense away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montalegre attack 1.40 + Marinhense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Marinhense attack 3.00 + Montalegre defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Montalegre scores more

16%

level

20%

Marinhense scores more

64%

Marinhense at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Marinhense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff