Montagnarde 1–0 Dinan Léhon: Result & Stats

Montagnarde

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinan Léhon

2/14/2021

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade de Mané-Braz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montagnarde53%

×Draw29%

Dinan Léhon19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontagnardeExpected goals in this matchDinan Léhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.67

Montagnarde

1.33

Dinan Léhon

0.67

Montagnarde creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Montagnarde

1.00

Dinan Léhon

0.67

allows per match

Montagnarde

0.67

Dinan Léhon

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montagnarde+0.00on par

Dinan Léhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montagnarde ↓

Dinan Léhon →

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Montagnarde or draw

81%

Montagnarde or Dinan Léhon

71%

Draw or Dinan Léhon

47%

Winning margin

Montagnarde wins by 2+

25%

Dinan Léhon wins by 2+

Team goals

Montagnarde 1+ goals

74%

Montagnarde 2+ goals

38%

Montagnarde 3+ goals

15%

Dinan Léhon 1+ goals

49%

Dinan Léhon 2+ goals

15%

Dinan Léhon 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montagnarde (draw refunded)

74%

Dinan Léhon (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montagnarde at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Dinan Léhon away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montagnarde attack 1.00 + Dinan Léhon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinan Léhon attack 0.67 + Montagnarde defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Montagnarde scores more

53%

level

29%

Dinan Léhon scores more

19%

Montagnarde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Montagnarde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff