Monsoon 2–1 Brasil Farroupilha: Result & Stats

Monsoon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Brasil Farroupilha

G. Gay 35'

Babi 29'

Gabinho 45'

6/17/2026

Copa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Monsoon41%

×Draw25%

Brasil Farroupilha34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonsoonExpected goals in this matchBrasil Farroupilha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.33

Monsoon

1.50

Brasil Farroupilha

1.33

Monsoon creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Monsoon

1.33

Brasil Farroupilha

1.33

allows per match

Monsoon

1.33

Brasil Farroupilha

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monsoon+0.00on par

Brasil Farroupilha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monsoon ↓

Brasil Farroupilha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monsoon or draw

66%

Monsoon or Brasil Farroupilha

75%

Draw or Brasil Farroupilha

59%

Winning margin

Monsoon wins by 2+

20%

Brasil Farroupilha wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Monsoon 1+ goals

78%

Monsoon 2+ goals

44%

Monsoon 3+ goals

19%

Brasil Farroupilha 1+ goals

74%

Brasil Farroupilha 2+ goals

38%

Brasil Farroupilha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Monsoon (draw refunded)

55%

Brasil Farroupilha (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monsoon at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Brasil Farroupilha away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monsoon attack 1.33 + Brasil Farroupilha defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Brasil Farroupilha attack 1.33 + Monsoon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Monsoon scores more

41%

level

25%

Brasil Farroupilha scores more

34%

Monsoon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monsoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Babi

35'

G. Gay

45'

Gabinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monsoon vs Brasil Farroupilha

Monsoon beat Brasil Farroupilha 2-1 in Copa Gaúcha on June 17, 2026.

Goals: Babi (29'), G. Gay (35'), Gabinho (45').

Monsoon vs Brasil Farroupilha — Copa Gaúcha 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Monsoon vs Brasil Farroupilha