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Monori Se vs Martfűi LSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Monori Se
Monori Se
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
5/19/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 29Balassi Bálint utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Monori Se59%
×Draw20%
Martfűi LSE20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monori Se
2.15
Martfűi LSE
1.17

Monori Se creates 84% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Monori Se
2.11
Martfűi LSE
1.07

allows per match

Monori Se
1.27
Martfűi LSE
2.18

finishing

Monori Se+0.00on par
Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monori Se ↓

Martfűi LSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Monori Se or draw
80%
Monori Se or Martfűi LSE
80%
Draw or Martfűi LSE
41%

Winning margin

Monori Se wins by 2+
37%
Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monori Se 1+ goals
88%
Monori Se 2+ goals
63%
Monori Se 3+ goals
36%
Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
69%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
33%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monori Se (draw refunded)
75%
Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monori Se at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monori Se attack 2.11 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.15

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Monori Se scores more
59%
level
20%
Martfűi LSE scores more
20%

Monori Se at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Monori Se will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monori Se vs Martfűi LSE

Martfűi LSE beat Monori Se 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Balassi Bálint utcai stadion in Monor.