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Monori Se vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Monori Se
Monori Se
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
2/19/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 22Balassi Bálint utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monori Se54%
×Draw22%
Kecskeméti TE II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monori Se
1.89
Kecskeméti TE II
1.17

Monori Se creates 62% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Monori Se
1.54
Kecskeméti TE II
1.18

allows per match

Monori Se
1.17
Kecskeméti TE II
2.24

finishing

Monori Se+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monori Se ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Monori Se or draw
77%
Monori Se or Kecskeméti TE II
78%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
46%

Winning margin

Monori Se wins by 2+
31%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Monori Se 1+ goals
85%
Monori Se 2+ goals
56%
Monori Se 3+ goals
29%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
69%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
33%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monori Se (draw refunded)
70%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monori Se at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monori Se attack 1.54 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Monori Se defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Monori Se scores more
54%
level
22%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
23%

Monori Se at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Monori Se will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Monori Se 2–0 Kecskeméti TE II

Monori Se beat Kecskeméti TE II 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Balassi Bálint utcai stadion in Monor.