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Monori Se vs Füzesgyarmati — NB III - Southeast 2023

Monori Se
Monori Se
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
10/29/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 13Balassi Bálint utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monori Se67%
×Draw17%
Füzesgyarmati16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monori Se
2.66
Füzesgyarmati
1.23

Monori Se creates 116% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Monori Se
2.11
Füzesgyarmati
1.20

allows per match

Monori Se
1.27
Füzesgyarmati
3.20

finishing

Monori Se+0.00on par
Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monori Se ↓

Füzesgyarmati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Monori Se or draw
84%
Monori Se or Füzesgyarmati
83%
Draw or Füzesgyarmati
33%

Winning margin

Monori Se wins by 2+
46%
Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Monori Se 1+ goals
93%
Monori Se 2+ goals
74%
Monori Se 3+ goals
49%
Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
71%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
35%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Monori Se (draw refunded)
81%
Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monori Se at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monori Se attack 2.11 + Füzesgyarmati defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.66

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.20 + Monori Se defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Monori Se scores more
67%
level
17%
Füzesgyarmati scores more
16%

Monori Se at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Monori Se will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monori Se vs Füzesgyarmati

Monori Se beat Füzesgyarmati 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Balassi Bálint utcai stadion in Monor.