Monopoli U19 1–2 Ternana U19: Result & Stats

Monopoli U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ternana U19

4/12/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 26Stadio Martucci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Monopoli U1943%

×Draw26%

Ternana U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monopoli U19Expected goals in this matchTernana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.23

Monopoli U19

1.48

Ternana U19

1.23

Monopoli U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 72 away

1.05

creates per match

0.94

1.52

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Monopoli U19

1.05

Ternana U19

0.94

allows per match

Monopoli U19

1.52

Ternana U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Ternana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Ternana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw

68%

Monopoli U19 or Ternana U19

74%

Draw or Ternana U19

57%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+

21%

Ternana U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals

77%

Monopoli U19 2+ goals

43%

Monopoli U19 3+ goals

19%

Ternana U19 1+ goals

71%

Ternana U19 2+ goals

35%

Ternana U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Ternana U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Ternana U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Ternana U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ternana U19 attack 0.94 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more

43%

level

26%

Ternana U19 scores more

32%

Monopoli U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monopoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff