Monopoli U19 3–0 Reggina U19: Result & Stats

Monopoli U19

FT

3 – 0

Reggina U19

11/26/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 10Campo Madonna d’Altomare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Monopoli U1947%

×Draw24%

Reggina U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monopoli U19Expected goals in this matchReggina U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.32

Monopoli U19

1.71

Reggina U19

1.32

Monopoli U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 39 away

1.05

creates per match

1.13

1.52

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Monopoli U19

1.05

Reggina U19

1.13

allows per match

Monopoli U19

1.52

Reggina U19

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Reggina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Reggina U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw

70%

Monopoli U19 or Reggina U19

76%

Draw or Reggina U19

53%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+

25%

Reggina U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals

82%

Monopoli U19 2+ goals

51%

Monopoli U19 3+ goals

24%

Reggina U19 1+ goals

73%

Reggina U19 2+ goals

38%

Reggina U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Reggina U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Reggina U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Reggina U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Reggina U19 attack 1.13 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more

47%

level

24%

Reggina U19 scores more

30%

Monopoli U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monopoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff