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Monopoli U19 vs Napoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Napoli U19
Napoli U19
3/2/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 21Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Monopoli U1928%
×Draw25%
Napoli U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monopoli U19
1.18
Napoli U19
1.60

Napoli U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 42 away

creates per match

Monopoli U19
1.05
Napoli U19
1.69

allows per match

Monopoli U19
1.52
Napoli U19
1.31

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par
Napoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Napoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw
53%
Monopoli U19 or Napoli U19
75%
Draw or Napoli U19
72%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
11%
Napoli U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals
69%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
33%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
12%
Napoli U19 1+ goals
80%
Napoli U19 2+ goals
47%
Napoli U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Napoli U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Napoli U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Napoli U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Napoli U19 attack 1.69 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more
28%
level
25%
Napoli U19 scores more
47%

Napoli U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Napoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monopoli U19 vs Napoli U19

Napoli U19 beat Monopoli U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia in Castellana Grotte.