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Monopoli U19 vs Bari U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bari U19
Bari U19
9/15/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 1Stadio Comunale Vito Curlo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Monopoli U1937%
×Draw25%
Bari U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monopoli U19
1.39
Bari U19
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

creates per match

Monopoli U19
1.05
Bari U19
1.24

allows per match

Monopoli U19
1.52
Bari U19
1.73

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par
Bari U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Bari U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw
63%
Monopoli U19 or Bari U19
75%
Draw or Bari U19
63%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
17%
Bari U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals
75%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
40%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
16%
Bari U19 1+ goals
75%
Bari U19 2+ goals
40%
Bari U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Bari U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Bari U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Bari U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bari U19 attack 1.24 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more
37%
level
25%
Bari U19 scores more
37%

Monopoli U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Monopoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monopoli U19 vs Bari U19

Monopoli U19 beat Bari U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vito Curlo in Fasano.